A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
